Not sure how long your cash will last, or what the next hire does to it? As an outside startup financial modeling consultant, DeFiGure builds the SaaS financial model, ecommerce cash flow forecast or SME plan behind your next raise, hire or price change.
Built for software & SaaS companies, e-commerce businesses and SMEs across Europe and English-speaking markets
DeFiGure builds a financial model from the drivers a company already controls: customers, prices, churn, hiring dates and payment terms. We link them to a monthly profit, cash and balance sheet view. Founders without a finance team get a model they can update themselves, with every assumption sourced and the main scenarios built in.
The work starts with your own numbers: accounting exports, bank balances, sales pipeline, payout reports. Where your data is thin, we use public benchmarks and write the source and its limits next to the assumption. Then we wire the model so one change flows through every statement, test which inputs move the result most, and walk your team through it so it can be run without us.
The steps are set out below and on our page on how we work. Unfamiliar terms are explained in plain words in the corporate finance glossary.
Four terms come up in every model we build. Here is what each one means, why it matters and a worked example.
The structure is the same for every company: drivers, linked statements, cash. What changes is what drives revenue and where cash gets stuck. We start with the part that decides your next decision.
| Company | What drives revenue | Where cash gets stuck | Where we usually start |
|---|---|---|---|
| Software & SaaS | New, expansion and churned recurring revenue by customer segment | Sales and engineering hires paid months before they bring revenue; annual prepayments that arrive as cash before they count as revenue | Monthly recurring revenue waterfall linked to the hiring plan and burn |
| E-commerce | Orders and average order value by channel, repeat purchase rate, marketing spend | Card and marketplace payouts that land days to weeks after the sale; inventory paid for before it sells | 13-week cash flow forecast at real payout and purchase-order dates |
| SMEs in other sectors | Customers, volumes, prices and contract terms | Customer payment terms longer than supplier terms; seasonal swings | Driver-based budget and rolling forecast on linked statements |
A SaaS financial model is built around the monthly recurring revenue (MRR) waterfall: starting MRR, plus new and expansion revenue, minus churned and contraction revenue. Each line is driven by inputs the team controls, such as leads, conversion rates and retention by segment. Salaries are usually the largest cost, so each hire is a separate row at fully loaded cost (salary plus employer taxes, benefits and equipment). Read how to forecast SaaS revenue bottom-up and how to model headcount and hiring costs.
Ecommerce cash flow forecasting is mostly about timing. A brand can earn a margin on every order and still miss payroll, because inventory cash goes out months before customer cash comes back. We date every receipt to its real payout and every purchase order to its real payment, week by week. Read how to build a 13-week cash flow forecast for an ecommerce business.
For SMEs in other sectors, the value is usually in a budget and a rolling forecast that management actually uses, and in knowing the difference between the two. Read the difference between a budget and a forecast.
Six pieces of work. The first call settles which ones your decision needs.
A monthly cash forecast for the next 12 to 24 months. When cash is tight or timing is uneven, we add a 13-week cash flow forecast: actual cash in and out of the bank, week by week, over one rolling quarter. Both show runway and the month cash would hit the floor you set.
Base, upside and downside cases that change the same few drivers, plus a combined shock (slower sales, higher costs and customers paying late, all at once) to find the week cash would run out while there is still time to act. See how to stress-test a startup's finances for a downturn.
Instead of three fixed cases, the model draws each uncertain input, such as monthly churn or payout delay, from a realistic range thousands of times and reports how often cash stays above your floor. Useful when a few inputs are genuinely uncertain and the decision is large; for a simple plan, three scenarios are enough, and we say so.
An annual budget built bottom-up by team and by month: headcount at fully loaded cost, tools, marketing and one-off costs. It sets the targets and stays separate from the forecast, so targets do not bend the forecast.
Compare where the next euro goes: a hire, a marketing channel, an inventory order, a price change. Each option is ranked by cash payback and its effect on runway, using the same model as the forecast, so spending decisions and the cash plan never disagree.
Each month, actuals go into the model next to the plan. We explain the gaps line by line and update the assumptions the gaps have disproved, so the forecast stays tied to the bank balance instead of the assumptions made at the last raise.
If you need someone to run monthly reporting, the close and investor updates on an ongoing basis, that work sits with CFO Advisory & Finance Function. If you are weighing a template against outside help, read advisory vs. templates.
Research first, then the model, then a ranked view of what matters most to your cash.
A 30-minute call about your stage, your numbers and the decision the model has to support. Then a fixed-scope proposal with deliverables and timeline.
Public signals and your own data, side by side: segments and competitors compared, with sources shown and limits stated next to each assumption.
Drivers wired into linked statements, sensitivity run to find the inputs that matter, scenarios built around them, findings ranked by their effect on cash.
We walk your team through the model so it can be updated without us, with a short summary a founder can present to a board or investors.
Investors read the model to test your thinking, not to check whether the forecast comes true. They look for revenue built bottom-up from drivers you control, assumptions with a stated source, a hiring plan that flows into burn, a linked P&L, balance sheet and cash flow, and a clear link between the size of the round and the milestones it pays for.
A simple one, yes. The balance sheet can stay small: cash, receivables, payables, deferred revenue and equity. Leaving it out means the model cannot track working capital, the cash tied up between paying suppliers and staff and getting paid by customers, which is where young companies often run short. Investors from seed onward expect the three statements to be linked.
Use a monthly MRR waterfall: starting monthly recurring revenue, plus new, plus expansion, minus churned and contraction revenue, equals ending MRR. Drive each line with operating inputs such as leads, conversion rates, average revenue per account and retention by segment, rather than a share of the market. Then check the result against net revenue retention. This waterfall is the core of a SaaS financial model.
Two timing gaps. Card and marketplace payouts reach the bank days to weeks after the sale, and inventory is paid for weeks or months before it sells. A standard forecast ignores both. An ecommerce cash flow forecast dates every receipt to its real payout and every purchase order to its real payment date, usually week by week over a rolling 13 weeks.
Three is the working standard: a base case built on recent actuals, an upside case tied to named initiatives, and a downside case that tests how long the cash lasts. Beyond four, nobody maintains them. Each scenario should change the same small set of drivers, so a founder, board or investor can compare the cases line by line.
A budget is the fixed plan you commit to for the year: targets for revenue, spending and hiring. A forecast is your best current estimate of what will actually happen, updated monthly or quarterly as real numbers come in. The budget sets accountability and the forecast guides decisions. Growing companies need both, kept separate so targets do not bend the forecast.
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Tell us what the model has to answer: a raise, a hiring plan, a price change, a cash squeeze. The first call is free and takes 30 minutes, and we reply to every message within 48 hours.